Solar Flare tensed up as his opponent charged, watching cautiously as the stallion shot into the air. Once his height peaked out, the red stallion hovered above, an occasional flap of his wings keeping him relatively steady. Solar flare tightened his grip on his crossbow, planning out a shot.

'Alright, so I know he's an elite soldier, so he probably does a lot of combat things instinctively, at this point. Now, he knows that he can't suddenly drop to avoid a shot, so he won't go down. He probably also knows that moving rapidly up would strain his wings greatly, and take a lot of energy, so he probably won't go up. All I have to do is determine whether he's the kind of pony who would move towards his heavy side and use gravity to assist him, at the chance of losing control for a moment, or whether he'll move away to keep balanced, but be a slight bit slower. Since he didn't attack right off, he's probably the defense type, which means he won't take a ton of risks. So, he'll move away from his sword. Which means, I need to aim to his right slightly.' Solar thought, keeping an eye on his opponent to make sure he didn't miss anything. He readied his grip on the trigger, took a deep breath, and, a second later, brought his crossbow up as fast as he could, took aim, and shot just to the right of the stallion.

(I'm assuming he's right hoof dominant and that the katana is attached to his left side so as to be drawn with his right hoof, sorry if that's not true.)